Good morning,

Here’s what’s going on in the vacation rental world this week:

Super Bowl 2026 is driving a massive revenue surge for Bay Area STRs, Trump’s Fed chair pick Kevin Warsh could reshape mortgage rate expectations, and HGTV is launching Wild Vacation Rentals to showcase America’s most extraordinary vacation homes

Plus, we’re breaking down the new “15% Rule” to grow repeat booking profits. 

Lets dive in. 

NEWS

Headline Roundup

• Repeat guests are costing STR operators millions in OTA fees (The Host Report)

• Super Bowl 2026 drives revenue surge for Bay Area STRs (The Host Report)

• What Trump’s Fed chair pick, Kevin Warsh, could mean for mortgage rates (Yahoo Finance)

• HGTV announces new series “Wild Vacation Rentals” premiering March 2nd (HGTV)

• STRs provide emergency housing to 70,000 Nashville residents after winter storm (The Tennessean)

• Sports and wellness travel spending is surging, according to Priority Pass (Collinson Group)

• Guesty launches Copilot to help hosts understand their data (Guesty)

56% of travelers research things to do before they book their place to stay

So by the time they’re looking on Airbnb, the #1 thing they want to know is how close they’ll be to the action!

Thats why custom maps can boost bookings by up to 30%

65% of people are visual learners. Show (don't tell) them exactly what they’re looking for.

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

The 15% Rule for Repeat Bookings

I came across a super interesting case study this week that I had to share. Here's the basic situation:

Let's say you manage a 30-property luxury portfolio doing $4.5 million in annual revenue.

A new guest books one of your properties through Airbnb. That guest has a fantastic experience, decides they want to make it an annual trip, and because they loved your property so much, they want to stay at your place every time.

So one year later, when the guest is booking your property for the second time, does the guest go back to Airbnb to book… or do they book directly through your website?

It's a super important question because if the guest goes back to Airbnb to book, Airbnb's going to charge their full 15.5% host-only fee. Whereas if they book directly with you, you don't pay that fee and it's much more profitable. Keep in mind that this isn't some random guest, it's a guest you already have a relationship with, and you know is high-quality because they've stayed with you before.

Paying that unnecessary second fee to an OTA is called "repeat guest leakage" and the question is: how much money is that costing hosts each year? And what can hosts do about it?

I just found this case study by hostAI where they analyzed over 230,000 bookings across 115 vacation rental operators in 2025 to answer that exact question.

Here's what they found:

The data shows that:

• Repeat guests represent a meaningful share of revenue for vacation rental operators: typically between 5-8%, but all the way up to 26% for some hosts.

• Roughly three-quarters of that revenue (77%) flows through OTAs. That means hosts are paying OTA commissions a second time on guests they've already acquired.

• As operators scale, repeat guest leakage increases. Larger operators tend to have more repeat guests in absolute terms, but they also leak a higher percentage to OTAs than smaller operators.

Here's what hosts can do about it:

Case Study: 15% Direct Mix Captures 84% of Repeat Revenue

They showed a really interesting case study of one luxury brand in Florida with 30+ listings to illustrate the pattern.

The brand’s direct booking channel represents just 15% of total bookings, but captures 84% of repeat guest revenue. That means one in four direct bookings is a repeat guest, compared to one in sixty-seven on Airbnb.

Two factors appear to contribute to the success:

• Systems to stay in touch with guests. Email campaigns keep the brand top of mind with past guests so that when guests plan their next trip, the brand is already in their inbox.

• Investment into marketing. They invest in Google Ads to drive direct bookings.

The 15% rule:

Here's the real takeaway, I’m calling it the 15% rule: By having the basic systems in place to capture just 15% of total bookings directly, that same infrastructure allows you to capture 84% of the repeat guest bookings.

Let's use specific numbers to break down what that means. For a 30-property luxury portfolio doing $4.5 million in annual revenue: If 8% of guests are repeat guests, that's $360k in total repeat guest revenue. That means capturing 84% of that revenue directly (instead of paying Airbnb's 15.5% fee) generates an extra $46k in revenue per year that you would have otherwise paid in OTA fees.

That's substantial. And the part I like best is that setting a goal to get 15% direct bookings feels really achievable. It's not like you have to try and get 50% direct bookings to stop the leakage. 15% is possible by just executing on the basics: investing in direct booking infrastructure, brand-building throughout the guest journey, and post-stay guest emails.

Just like anything in life, having a direct booking funnel in place doesn't mean you're going to get a massive spike in bookings day one. But creating and maintaining those systems can really add a lot of repeat booking value to your bottom line over the long term.

MARKET INSIGHTS

Mortgage Rate Snapshot

Mortgage rates were mostly flat through the middle of the week, with little reaction to the Fed or stock market swings. Strong manufacturing data weakened bonds and pushed rates slightly higher, ending near a two-week high around 6.20%.

Regulations Update

• Washington state legislators are considering a bill allowing local governments to impose a 1-4% tax on short-term rentals with Airbnb opposing via significant PAC spending

• San Diego's Rules Committee rejected a proposed $8,000 annual tax on empty second homes and STRs in a 3-2 vote, preventing the measure from advancing to council or ballot

• Albuquerque, New Mexico, City Councilors are proposing to prohibit new STR permits within 330 feet of existing ones.

See this weeks full regulations report here: (The Host Report)