Good morning,

Here’s what’s going on in the vacation rental world this week:

KeyData’s industry outlook finds 55% of property managers expect higher nightly rates in 2027 (up from 38% last year), 62% of properties tell Booking .com that guests are less likely to book without their preferred way to pay, and we break down new data that shows which bookings are 2.4x as likely to end with property damage.

Lets dive in. 

NEWS

Headline Roundup

• Property managers are expecting higher nightly rates in 2027 (The Host Report)

• No Apple Pay, no booking: 62% of properties have lost guests over payment options (Travolution)

• Expedia’s Unpack ’27 names hobby trips, one-night stays and heartland getaways as 2027 trends (Expedia)

• Under Canvas may change owners soon as KSL nears the end of its holding period (CoStar)

• Western mountain destinations are seeing strong fall, slower winter bookings (Inntopia)

• iGMS finds Local Law 18 left NYC’s STR supply 80% below where it would be (WBOC)

• Hospitable adds inventory tracking to its suite of tools (10 Min Hotel)

Presented by: GuestLink

INTERESTING INSIGHTS

What makes a booking risky?

You can see what a booking pays as soon as it comes through, but what's the risk that the guest will cause damage to your property?

Truvi released its 2026 STR Risk & Resilience Report this week, and across more than 95,000 bookings, around 1 in 59 led to a protection request for guest damage.

But some booking patterns carried way more risk than others. For example, stays of 21–30 nights were 2.4x as likely to result in an incident as the average booking: 

This report caught my eye because there isn’t much data on the types of bookings that carry the highest risk of property damage. So it helps to put numbers behind things we usually have to judge by gut feel.

Here’s what else stood out:

Overcrowding can matter more than size

First, let's look at how many guests your property can accommodate.

Incident rates generally rose as the max capacity of a property went up. That makes sense, but the trend wasn’t perfectly linear:

Now look at the number of guests per bathroom:

The second chart gets at something that max capacity misses. 8 guests staying in a house with 4 bathrooms is a totally different setup than 8 guests sharing 2 bathrooms. The headcount is the same, but the wear and tear on the property isn’t.

Keep that in mind when a guest asks to bring “just one more person.” It sounds like a small favor. But it’s the small, overcrowded properties with people sleeping on couches and floors where the risk of damage gets higher.

Amenities come with tradeoffs

The amenities you advertise can also shape the trips your property attracts. 

In Truvi’s data, properties advertising 5 or more group-entertainment features (ex: pool table + outdoor seating + barbecue + pool + hot tub), are 2.3x as likely to end in an incident. 

And here’s the breakdown by individual amenity:

These patterns don't say that amenities inherently carry risk, or that they aren’t right for your property. 

But most hosts just see how much additional revenue an amenity brings to the property… they don't always understand what kind of bookings that amenity attracts, and include the upkeep and potential damage costs that come along with the extra revenue.  

Timing, distance, and age

Beyond the property itself, Truvi found differences based on when guests booked, how far they traveled, and the primary guest’s age.

Same-day bookings had higher incident rates than bookings made further ahead:

Nearby guests also had higher incident rates. The lowest-risk distance was 1,001–5,000 miles:

Incident rates went down as the primary guest’s age went up:

Look at the whole booking

No single factor tells you how a stay will go. But if you know what bookings tend to be more risky, you can see a booking that has several red flags at the same time (like a last-minute, local booking, with extra guests).

Most hosts don’t have this kind of information on hand. Knowing these patterns can help you recognize bookings that deserve a closer look, and take precautions before guests arrive.

P.S. - It’s always a good idea to understand your protection before you need it. THR’s AirCover guide and fine print explainer are useful starting points

Data Source: Truvi’s 2026 STR Risk & Resilience Report. Booking analysis covers January 1–September 16, 2026; damage-category analysis covers April–September 2026. An “incident” means a host opened a protection request. Findings show associations, not causes.

MARKET INSIGHTS

Mortgage Rate Snapshot

Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since late September, extending their pullback from this month’s highs even after a hotter-than-expected inflation report last Wednesday. Worries about AI and tech companies pushed investors out of stocks and into bonds, which outweighed the inflation news and pulled rates lower.

Regulations Update

• Nashville, Tennessee sent 14 warning notices to unpermitted STRs in one week, giving owners until mid-November to comply

• Sarasota, Florida advanced rules adding about 50 downtown properties to its vacation rental program, with fee increases the local Realtors association pegs at 70%

• Birmingham, Michigan unanimously banned rentals under 30 days, and existing STR licenses won’t be renewed after they expire April 15, 2027

See this weeks full regulations report here: (The Host Report)